“Scapegoating immigrants won’t solve the problems,” Sam Bayat.
In a significant policy shift, the Canadian government is set to cut its Immigration Level Plans, departing from the ambitious growth goals established in previous years. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s administration has announced a reduction in the planned intake of new permanent residents. This decision reflects evolving political and economic considerations and is set to mount challenges posed by surging asylum claims and critics of system integrity.
The New Immigration Levels Plan: A Sharp Reversal
Announced on November 1, 2023, the 2024–2026 Immigration Levels Plan initially set targets of 500,000 new permanent residents annually by 2025. However, recent developments indicate a reduction to 395,000 in 2025, dropping further to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027. These figures represent a cut of nearly 100,000 from previous plans, signaling a more cautious and measured approach.
Critics argue that these cuts are shortsighted and fail to address the root causes of Canada’s housing and infrastructure challenges. Sam Bayat, a prominent voice in the Canadian immigration community, emphasizes that reducing immigration targets does not solve the underlying issues; it merely shifts the burden elsewhere: “Reducing immigration targets is a shortsighted approach that fails to address the root causes of Canada’s housing and infrastructure challenges. While the government claims these cuts are necessary to stabilize population growth and alleviate pressure on the housing market, this stance ignores that Canada has welcomed over 1 million new residents in the past year alone, with little preparation for their arrival.”
This reversal is more than a numbers game; it’s a reflection of Canada’s shifting priorities. Economic pressures, housing affordability concerns, and strained public services have all contributed to this policy turn. While the Trudeau government has historically championed high immigration levels to address labor shortages and demographic challenges, the current tendencies and threats need a different strategy.
Economic Class Immigration: The Hardest Hit
One of the most significant reductions will occur in the economic class. Targets for this category—including programs such as the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSW), and Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)—will see substantial cuts. The intake is expected to drop by approximately 60%, with only around 41,000 new admissions anticipated in 2025. This reduction could hinder efforts to attract skilled talent in sectors experiencing acute labor shortages.
Moreover, the Liberal government’s liberal/open/laissez-faire attitude towards issuing visitor visas has exacerbated the situation. By granting visas to a wide range of nationalities without adequate screening or planning for their integration into the labor market, the government has created a scenario where many newcomers are filling ordinary jobs rather than addressing specific labor shortages in technical fields. The issuance of open work permits to these groups has further complicated matters, allowing individuals who may not have been selected for their skills to enter Canada and contribute to an already strained job market.
Provincial Nominee Programs, designed to address specific labor needs across provinces, will also face reductions. The intake will be decreased to 55,000, maintaining this level until 2027. These cuts may hinder efforts to attract skilled talent, particularly in sectors experiencing acute labor shortages.
Bayat argues that reducing economic immigration could undermine Canada’s long-term competitiveness: “This policy shift sends a troubling message internationally. Canada has long been a leader in immigration and multiculturalism. These cuts risk damaging Canada’s international reputation and ability to attract top talent worldwide. Canada cannot afford to be seen as closing its doors in an increasingly competitive global market for skilled workers… The government’s approach risks undermining the economic and social benefits immigrants bring, particularly in filling labor shortages and driving innovation.”
Family Reunification and Humanitarian Programs: Facing Reductions
Family reunification, a cornerstone of Canada’s immigration policy, will also see a decrease. The number of visas allocated for this category will drop from 118,000 to 98,000, a reduction that could provoke backlash from advocacy groups. Family sponsorship programs play a vital role in Canada’s multicultural fabric, and these cuts may strain families hoping to reunite.
Humanitarian programs, including refugee and asylum systems, will similarly face constraints. Although Canada has long prided itself on its humanitarian commitments, the surge in asylum claims has stretched resources thin.
The Asylum System Under Strain
Between January and September 2024, Canada received 132,000 asylum claims, a record high. International students alone accounted for nearly 14,000 claims during this period, surpassing previous annual totals. This trend highlights a critical challenge. Many claims, particularly from international students, are viewed skeptically by Immigration Minister Marc Miller, who suggests they are “mostly false” and driven by outside advice. This sentiment reflects growing concerns about loopholes and misuse within the system. Bayat notes that the influx of asylum applications risks overwhelming Canada’s resources and undermining the system’s integrity: “The recent surge in asylum claims, especially from temporary residents and international students, indicates potential misuse of the system,” he further explains: “With the cuts in permanent resident targets, many temporary residents may seek asylum as a backdoor to stay in Canada. This could create an avalanche of applications, straining resources and raising questions about the system’s robustness.”
Political and Social Dynamics Driving Change
The decision to scale back immigration targets is not merely a bureaucratic adjustment but a response to mounting public pressure and political realities. Canada faces a federal election in October 2025, and immigration will be in focus. Frustration over housing shortages, rising unemployment, and stretched public services has fueled public skepticism. The Trudeau government’s recalibration appears to be a strategic move to address these concerns and regain voter trust.
The recent cuts also reflect a broader debate about balancing humanitarian obligations with economic and social stability. Canada has long been a global leader in welcoming immigrants, a policy seen as essential for addressing its aging population and labor needs. However, the rapid pace of population growth has outpaced infrastructure development, contributing to affordability crises in major cities.
“As public concerns over housing and affordability rise, scapegoating immigrants is a simplistic solution to complex problems. It reflects a lack of foresight and planning rather than a genuine attempt to address root causes”, says Bayat.
Impact on Temporary Residents and International Students
Another significant aspect of the new policy is the introduction of official targets for temporary residents, a first in Canada’s immigration history. The government plans to reduce temporary resident applications by nearly 30,000 in 2025. This aligns with Minister Miller’s goal of reducing temporary residents’ share of the population from 6.5% to 5.2% over the next three years.
Temporary residents, including international students, have become a focal point in the immigration debate. The record-high asylum claims from students point to a potential loophole being exploited. According to Bayat “misuse of the asylum system by temporary residents and students is a serious concern. Without robust reforms, this trend could undermine public confidence in Canada’s immigration policies.”
2024–2026 Immigration Targets
Economic Immigrants will remain the cornerstone of Canada’s immigration plan. In 2024, the country aims to attract approximately 281,135 economic immigrants, representing 58% of the total annual target. This number is set to increase to 301,250 by 2026, comprising 60% of overall admissions. The Express Entry system plays a significant role, with an objective of 110,700 permanent residents in 2024, rising to 117,500 in both 2025 and 2026. Additionally, the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) targets 110,000 admissions in 2024, increasing to 120,000 annually by 2025 and 2026.
Family Reunification also remains a priority. The family class target is set at 114,000 immigrants for 2024, accounting for 24% of total admissions, with plans to grow this figure to 118,000 by 2026. Within this category, spousal, partner, and child sponsorships are projected to reach 82,000 in 2024, increasing slightly to 84,000 in the following years. The Parents and Grandparents Program (PGP) aims to welcome 32,000 immigrants in 2024, expanding to 34,000 by 2025 and 2026.
On the humanitarian front, Canada plans to admit 89,865 immigrants under humanitarian and compassionate grounds in 2024, representing approximately 19% of total admissions. This figure will gradually decrease to 80,832 by 2026, making up 16% of the overall target. This category encompasses refugees, protected persons, and those admitted for compassionate reasons.
Immigration News Canada notes that the decision to reduce the number of immigrants represents a significant change in its policy landscape, balancing domestic economic challenges with public sentiment. The government must address legitimate public concerns about housing, affordability, and social services while maintaining its humanitarian commitments and economic needs. This change is not without risks. Reducing economic-class immigration could worsen labor shortages in critical sectors. Similarly, cutting family reunification programs may strain Canada’s reputation as a welcoming, multicultural nation.
The coming years will be a test of Canada’s ability to adapt its immigration system to evolving realities. Policy reforms will be essential to address the surge in asylum claims and ensure the system’s integrity. Streamlining processes, closing loopholes, and enhancing support for genuine refugees will be crucial steps that Sam Bayat advocates for: “We must engage with economists, get feedback from Canadians, and develop a controlled and well-managed migration plan. This dual approach—addressing immediate labor needs while planning for long-term growth—is essential to maintaining Canada’s standing as a desirable destination.”
Political dynamics also play a significant role in this U-turn of immigration policy. With a federal election on the horizon in October 2025, public frustration over housing shortages and stretched public services has fueled skepticism toward immigration policies. The Trudeau government’s response appears strategic rather than substantive—a move to regain voter trust rather than a genuine attempt to address systemic issues.
As Canada grapples with these changes, it must confront its approach head-on. The government’s failure to adequately plan for the integration of newcomers into meaningful employment is evident. Instead of scapegoating immigrants for economic challenges, it should focus on creating a robust immigration framework that prioritizes skilled workers while maintaining humanitarian commitments.
In conclusion, Canada stands at a crossroads regarding its immigration policy. The current government’s actions reflect a reactive rather than proactive stance that risks damaging Canada’s reputation as a welcoming nation committed to multiculturalism and economic growth. As public concerns mount over housing and affordability, Canada must develop a comprehensive strategy that addresses these challenges while ensuring that immigration continues to drive its economic and social success. The coming years will test whether Canada can balance public sentiment with its long-standing ideals of inclusivity and opportunity for all.